” With the U.S. economy at full employment and inflation at the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent goal, the U.S. central bank should press on with its plan for gradual interest rate hikes at least for the next nine to 12 months, a policymaker said on Tuesday.
Only once short-term rates reach a “neutral” level where they are neither stimulating nor braking the economy should the central bank potentially stop raising rates and figure out what to do next, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said in an essay.
Neutral, he said, is somewhere between 2.5 percent and 2.75 percent.
“It would take approximately three or four more federal funds rate increases of a quarter of a percent to get into the range of this estimated neutral level,” Kaplan wrote in the essay, which was published by the Dallas Fed. ”
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” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President said prospects for an inversion in the Treasury yield curve, which is widely viewed as a signal of a possible recession, would prompt him to dissent against further interest-rate hikes.
“I pledge to you I will not vote for anything that will knowingly invert the curve and I am hopeful that as we move forward I won’t be faced with that,’’ Bostic said Monday in Kingsport, Tennessee, in response to an audience question. “The market is going to do what the market does, and we have to pay attention and react.’’ ”
“The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, its second rate hike this year, and signalled a faster pace of rate hikes this year.
The Federal Open Market Committee increased the overnight funds rate to a range of
“The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term,” The Federal Reserve said in a statement.”
” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly played down the central bank’s “dot plot” as a guide to future interest rates, but Wall Street just won’t take the hint.
While the Federal Open Market Committee is almost certain to raise rates a quarter point at the close of a two-day meeting Wednesday, investors are focused on whether the panel will signal one or two additional 2018 hikes when it releases updated interest-rate forecasts with the policy decision at 2 p.m. Powell will begin his press conference 30 minutes later.
The FOMC was about evenly split in March when it projected three hikes this year, so just one participant switching to four hikes could shift the median of the committee. Accelerating growth and inflation rising to target might argue for a more aggressive tightening, while lackluster wage increases and fragile emerging markets would suggest caution.”
Today will be a big day for FX trades. Some important decisons and economy numbers will probably move the market.
We have three main currencies today, the GBP, USD and NZD.
I bet that Claimant Count Change will move the market and this nuber will probably be a lower one than the expected. The Avg. Earning Index aseems almost the same like earlier, so the movement will be probably BEARISH.
The Fed Interest Rate Decision is very important. The main problem with it, that the Fed will probably raise the Interest Rate to 1.75% (99% chance), and all traders know it. So what will happen with the USD?
If the Fed somehow let the interest rate @1,50%, this will be a huge surprise. The USD price will fall! If the new Interest rate will be 1,75% the USD will probably become stronger. BUT as I said all traders/investors wait tor this scenerio so there is a chance of low movement. SO, everyone will wait for the Press conference, where we will receive more information about the Decision and the future plans. This will help the investors/traders to decide about the investment values, and that can really move the market for longer term.
My bet is a BULLISH movement for today.
The Reserve Bank of New-Zealand will also decide about the Interest rate. They will probably let the rate @ 1,75%. I think it will only generate a short term movement. My bet is a BEARISH movement.
Many new friends joined us in the last some days and as I said we’ll earn real good profit this week. This movement is started. We can see many signs to trade and I’m sure that these will be comfirmed soon.
Today, I was not lucky with the news. During the day every movement ruined the signals was near to confirmation. But @ the end the FOMC Statement and the Interest Rate Decision helped.
The FED kept the Interest rate between 1,25%-1,50%. READ ABOUT THE MEETING HERE!
This happened with the USD:
If you analize the USD chart in the 15M and 30M you can see Bullish candle stick pattern and the 1H technical analysis also shows Bullish direction. So the last 2 candle must be a small retracement.
Talk some words about the news tomorrow.
You can see that tomorrow will be filled with fresh economy numbers, but the most importants will be the German (EU’s leader’s), the British and the US Manufacturing PMI. These can make the biggest movements tomorrow.
Today, the Forex Strategy Course students made many clear and fast trades, with EURJPY, GBPAUD, EURUSD and generated 30-70 pips profit easily.
If I’m right and USD will become stronger tomorrow, we’ll receive clear signals to EUR, and USD pairs and to GOLD too. GBP also can be a good option, but mostly if the British PMI will be worse than the expected.
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Lets talk about tomorrow news.The Asian Session will start with Japanese and Australian numbers. We’re interested in the Australian CPI and if it’ll be good, it’ll help us to close the AUDNZD trade.
The 2nd thing we’re waiting for is the Trump Speech, what can help the USD to become stronger again.
The European economy numbers will be published from 8:00-11:00. The forecasts shows weaker numbers than the earliers. I’ll be real happy if the EUR will become weaker.
During the US session the US employment datas and the Canadian GDP will be published first, but we have to be careful because of the FOMC Statetement and the Interest Rate Decision.
So, as you can see, tomorrow will be full of happenings what can ruin or help our trades to close fast. I’ll be real careful tomorrow, so we’ll only make short trades and we’ll hedge our trades near the important news.
I will watch the Trump Speech and will prepare for trading. I hope most of the Forex Strategy Course students will be up with me and scalping after the news…
Come back tomorrow and check the new trades, or join the EXPRESS SIGNALS now and receive the signals on time.
“Gold prices eased slightly in Asia on Thursday as investors debated the prospect of China sharly trimming puchases of US Treasurys and whether the Bank of Japan is set to inch forward on a way out of its aggressive monetary policy.
Comex on the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped 0.06% to $1,318.50 a troy ounce.
Overnight, gold prices were hovering near four-month highs on Wednesday, as sentiment on the U.S. dollar weakened ahead of retail sales and inflation reports due at the end of the week.”
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“US interest rates are likely to rise again next month and a further three times next year, one of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setters has said.
John Williams, who sits on the Fed’s Open Markets Committee, said a rate rise in December “makes sense, at least based on the information I have today”.
He also told the BBC he was “pencilling in” three further increases next year, as interest rates returned gradually to “a normal level” of about 2.5%.”
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” On Thursday, President Trump thanked Ms Yellen for her stewardship of the bank, calling her a “wonderful woman who has done a terrific job”.
Mr Powell, who has an estimated income of between $20m and $55m (£15m-£41m), is a lawyer by training and a former partner in the Carlyle Group, one of the world’s biggest investment companies.
He was appointed to the Federal Reserve board in 2012 and has voted with the majority on issues such as interest rates.
In brief remarks on Thursday, Mr Powell said the economy has made progress since the financial crisis and pledged to make decisions “with objectivity, based on the best available evidence”.”
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